All eyes will be on potential superstar Limato in the 888sport Sandy Lane Stakes (Haydock 3.45). Henry Candy’s bay by Tagula is a perfect five from five over this six furlong trip and has looked pretty imperious in his career to date. Untouchable as a two year old, any doubts over whether he would prove as effective at three were dispelled in emphatic fashion last time out at Ascot. Stepping into Group company for the first time he slammed a field containing four of today’s rivals by an ever so easy length and a half. The manner of his victories suggest he has even more in the locker should anything be able to step up and give him a race. Trading at around 2.25 he looks a worthy favourite for this.
That price is pretty short for a Group 2 contest however and there are reasons to oppose him here. The strongest of which is the likely good to soft going. Having been raced only on good or better to date, his first two runs were on the all-weather but that tends to translate to a good to firm turf surface, there must be some question as to whether he will prove as effective with significant give underfoot. Connections obviously harbour some concerns in this regard as he was pulled out of the Mill Reef Stakes as a two year old due to soft going. A look into the statistics of both his sire and dam sire would suggest there may be sound reasons to expect him to be at his peak on good to firm ground. The progeny of his sire Tagula boast a 10% strike rate on good to form which falls to 7% on good to soft. Similarly dam sire Singspiels’ offspring win 14% of the time on good to firm and only 7% on good to soft. On visual impressions there is no reason to oppose Limato but we like to go with the stats, the stats say he won’t be quite as good here and the percentage call is to oppose him.
The question is, what’s going to beat him? Adaay, Beacon, Burnt Sugar and Markaz couldn’t lay a glove on him last time out and it’s difficult to see them reversing the form. Adaay would appear the most likely of that quartet to pose a threat having always looked the type to make a decent three year old.
Tim Easterby’s Mattmu has also already had a crack at Limato back in their two year old days and in truth never looked like beating him. Nevertheless we feel he could turn the tables with the ground coming very much in his favour. Unbeaten in two starts on a good to soft surface he proved himself right up to this level when narrowly beaten into second in the Duke Of York Stakes on his first run for six months. Impressive as Limato has been to date he is stepping into a Group 2 for the first time here and was only a length and a half ahead of Mattmu when they last met. With the ground possibly going against the favourite and in favour of Easterby’s charge this could be a lot closer than the odds imply. At around the 5.5 mark he is the one to back here.
Author: Paul HarrisonFind more in horse racing at Betadvisor
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